How Inflation and Unemployment Are Related

Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2

Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2
Thanks for all the upvotes and comments on the previous pieces:
From the first half of the news trading note we learned some ways to estimate what is priced in by the market. We learned that we are trading any gap in market expectations rather than the result itself. A good result when the market expected a fantastic result is disappointing! We also looked at second order thinking. After all that, I hope the reaction of prices to events is starting to make more sense to you.

Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times
We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers:
It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do.

Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The trimming position effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases

Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases

The majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP.
Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data.

A great resource that's totally free to use
This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down.
Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders.
For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend.
Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money.
Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show.
For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence.

Helpful context
There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers.
There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.

Data surprise index

The other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic.
You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference.
If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative.

Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast
There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers.
When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish.
These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.

Using recent events to predict future reactions

The market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects?
That seems easy to answer but it is not.
Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
  • Many times the market will shrug and ignore it.
  • But when the economic recovery is predicated on a strong consumer it may move markets a lot.
Or consider the S&P index of US stocks (Wall Street).
  • If you get good economic data that beats analyst estimates surely it should go up? Well, sometimes that is certainly the case.
  • But good economic data might result in the US Central Bank raising interest rates. Raising interest rates will generally make the stock market go down!
So better than expected data could make the S&P go up (“the economy is great”) or down (“the Fed is more likely to raise rates”). It depends. The market can interpret the same data totally differently at different times.
One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event.
For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then?

2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher
So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect.
Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact

A final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact
In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed.
So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.

Trimming or taking off positions

One thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes.
Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions.

The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning
If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus.
But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.

Two kinds of reversals

Fairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way.
These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.

Logical reversals

Sometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it.
For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers.
Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.

Crazy reversals


Some reversals don't make sense
Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth?
This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.

Some key releases

As we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.

Interest rates decisions

These can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate.
You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot.
A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower.
A central banker speaking is always a big event

Non farm payrolls

These are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities.
There are three numbers:
  • The headline number of jobs created (bigger is better)
  • The unemployment rate (smaller is better)
  • Average hourly earnings (depends)
Bear in mind these headline numbers are often off by around 75,000. If a report comes in +/- 25,000 of the forecast, that is probably a non event.
In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action.
Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.

Surveys

There are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc.
Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here.
A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.

GDP

Gross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing.
In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time.
This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release.
In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.

Inflation

Countries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate.
See the FX fundamentals section for more details.

Industrial data

Things like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy.
These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels.
Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.

Comments

Often there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.

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CMV: Regarding new economic plan that would create an open system of accountability and without increasing the debt.

Currently there are 250,000 people in Las Vegas, NV that will not be able to pay their rent for September. Let's say a total of $125,000 million dollars would take care of their rent situation. I came up with that number by dividing $125,000 by $500. I know rents are higher. This is for illustrative purposes.
This is a very difficult time for just about everyone at the moment. We are looking for answers that we just don’t have. Now is the time to come together as a unit and take part in something bigger than it’s individual parts. I am talking about a new way of financial thinking that creates a win, win, win, situation. Renters make up forty percent of households and thirty eight percent of renters are estimated to be unemployed right now. Eviction notices could be mailed as soon as next month. This is a crisis that will affect the entire country. But there is something that we can do about it, but it takes all of our voices in unity to make it happen. This is a collective action that can be implemented immediately. Now is the time to go beyond thinking out of the box and thinking out of our universe.
Big banks and financial institutions were responsible for the 2007 housing collapse which devastated the entire world economy. In 2008, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act was signed into law, creating a $700 billion program to purchase devalued assets from banks. This was called the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Later, President Obama would direct $75 billion in funds from TARP to help reduce interest payments for homeowners. That means homeowners received around 10% of the direct relief that banks and corporations did, according to Business Insider. It’s now time for the financial institutions to do their share and make up for the last financial debacle.
The financial markets are experiencing all time highs and billionaires got $637 billion dollars richer in the last few months. Somethings definitely out of whack here and I will show you how we fix this. I said we, meaning the millions of people around the world with one voice helping to implement The One Cent More Plan. For any financial movement to be sustainable it must be transparent for all to see where the money is being used and not exploited by a few. That’s why no one organization is responsible for the money involved and each transaction is in the block-chain ledger for all to see at anytime.
This is how it works for renters, landlords and the banks. For the purpose of this example let’s use Cindy as a renter who lives in Las Vegas and lost her job and can’t pay next months rent. She has notified her landlord and he is trying to be as courteous as possible, but he also has a mortgage to pay on his apartment building which has ten units. Some of the other tenants have lost their jobs as well. As you can see this is a common occurrence in Las Vegas at the moment. This is where the bank steps in as the lovable George Bailey types which they will become. I know what you are thinking. Their more like Mr. Potter than George in it’s a Wonderful Life. But you will soon see that it’s in their best interest to be more like George in the long run. If you haven’t seen the movie, I suggest you do. It’s one of my favorites.
I will start with the New York Stock Exchange. The average daily volume for the last three months was 1,123,989,426 shares which equates to a staggering 22,479,788,520 shares per month. What if for each share an additional fee of one cent were added. This would result in $11,239,894.26 dollars per day going into the The One Cent More Plan Fund. You know at the end of each day the total amount that the fund should have simply by looking at the end of day total volume for the market. Multiply that by the number of trading days in the month and it equals 224,797,885.20 dollars. This is just one market. Now let’s say Cindy is a beneficiary of The One Cent More Plan Fund which is setup for the sole purpose of assisting with rent for those who can’t pay. Her rent was 750 dollars she would receive 500 dollars for rent and nothing out of her pocket. But Cindy wouldn’t get a direct payment. She would receive a receipt contract from her bank with a block-chain transaction number which she can look up on the internet to verify that it had been paid. Her landlord would also receive from his bank a receipt contract only because he owes the bank his mortgage payment. If he had no mortgage the payment would go directly to him. His payment would also be on the block-chain. So, Cindy’s rent is paid for the month of September. Her landlord is happy although he doesn’t get his normal amount of 750 dollars, it’s still better than having to go through the hassle of evicting a good tenant and ending up with no rent at all!! And the landlords bank is happy that the mortgage is being paid.
Here is the Ethereum Blockchain Ledger
So how much would it cost to do the same for the other people who can’t pay their rent. This is just one example with one market. As you can see there are no real losers in this equation. A one cent transaction fee on every stock sold is not a lot to fight over. Once Cindy finds a job she would not receive the entire $500 for rent only $300. The remaining $200 would stay in the fund to sustain it. And by the way this is a temporary transaction fee until more people get back to work and the economy starts to recover. It is estimated that $21 trillion dollars is hidden in offshore accounts by the wealthy. Companies in the United States have an estimated $2.1 trillion. If companies just brought back that money and donated the interest alone from it this would have a huge impact on the economy and not increase the national debt at all! When you don’t have customers with money to buy your product it will really begin to feel like 1929 again in a hurry. This could snowball quickly. We don’t have time for negotiations over a stimulus package. Big banks and corporations could really turn their image around and be the true heroes if they wanted to be. The money is there folks we just have to make them accountable with our voices. We have seen how social change can happen all around the world. Let’s not miss this opportunity today right now. I haven’t even spoken about the largest market in the world and that is Forex. If we just took a small portion each day from the six trillion that is traded each day it would help us stop evictions around the world and give people hope.
Banks are already using block-chain technology as we speak. This doesn’t require building brand new infrastructure. As I just showed you this can be done with existing bank accounts. Payments can be made in seconds. I can send my sister money through Zelle in minutes. Their should be no lag time as to when payments can be made. So who is going to foot the bill for making this happen. The banks of course and without any transaction fee whatsoever.
I look forward to all your comments and suggestions with an open mind.

Thanks,,
chronus80
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Trading economic news

The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases.
This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.

How economic news is released

First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020.
In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots.
No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners.
Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup.
Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price!
Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!

How the news affects forex markets

Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent.
It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast.
Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators.
Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market.
The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US.
Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com.
Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles.
I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.
USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present)
USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present)
The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all.
For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected.
The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up.
I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.

Backtesting

So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report.
Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters.
Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk.
Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not.
Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one.
The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest.
Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered.
I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized.
For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade.
Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot.
Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from.
Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade.
That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.

Make it real

If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day.
Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved.
Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world.
I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
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What Is Forex?

What Is Forex?

A New Era

Although it might seem easy to invest in Forex nowadays, by just logging into an account with a broker, deposit some money and start actively trading; it has not always been like this, as forex industry has rapidly changed in the past three decades.
Before technology and free-floating currencies took over the industry, world currency exchanges were operating under the Bretton Woods System of Money Management. This agreement established rules for commercial and financial relations among top economies, tying their currencies to gold. Hence, a currency note issued by any world government represented a real amount of gold held in a vault by that nation. When in July 1944 delegates from all over the world sign off the pact, the main goal was to reduce lack of cooperation between countries and therefore avoiding currency wars. This process of regulating the foreign exchange brought to the foundation of the international money fund (IMF) and the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), today part of World bank Group.
However, in the early 70s the real-world economics outpaced the system, dollar suffered from severe inflation cutting its value by half. At that time unemployment rate was 6.1% and inflation 5.84%. Finally, in August 1971, U.S. government led by Richard Nixon took away gold standard, creating the first fiat currency and replacing Bretton Woods System with De Facto. Together with this there were other important measures taken by the USA president to combat that high inflation regime:
  1. This decision was driven by many European nations asking to redeem their dollars for gold, till leaving Bretton Woods System. This had an enormous impact on USD which plunged against European currencies. Consequently, USA congress release a report suggesting USD devaluation to protect the currency from foreign gougers. However, dollar dropped again, and Treasury Secretary was directed to suspend the USD convertibility with gold; hence foreign governments could no longer exchange their USD with gold.
  2. The inflation level was skyrocketing and one more action taken by Nixon was to freeze all wages and prices for 90 days, this was the first time since WWII.
  3. Import surcharge of 10% was set up to safeguard American products ensuring no disadvantage in trades.
Today, USD dominates financial markets, accounting together with the EURO, for approximately 50% of all currency exchange transactions in the world.
1971 represents the beginning of a new forex trading era, bringing this market to be the largest and most liquid in the world, with an average of daily trading volume exceeding $5trn. All the world’s combined stock markets don t even come close to this, what does this mean to you?
In an environment which is controlled by free-floating currencies moving constantly, following principles of supply and demand, there are constant and exciting trading opportunities, unavailable when investing in different markets.
In this article are shared main features of what is forex trading today and how can be an incredible new source of income for everyone who is into financial markets.

What Is Forex?

Forex is the acronym for foreign exchange which intends to be a decentralized or over the counter (OTC) marketplace, where currencies from all over the world are traded 24 hours, five days a week. Main financial centres include New York, Chicago, London, Tokyo and Frankfurt for Eurozone. It is by far the largest market in the world in terms of volume, followed by the credit market. Being highly liquid is an important feature that allows traders to be able to enter and exit their positions very quickly. Nevertheless, while trading forex, an investor should be aware of several components:
Dynamicity – forex is an extremely fast environment, this means that currency rates can move very fast, influenced by price action signals and fundamental factors. Therefore, going into forex trading, one needs to be aware of adopting serious risk and money management strategies in order to be effective, limiting losses.
Zero Sum Game – trading forex is not like investing in the stock market but is known to be a zero-sum game. For example, going into the equity market buying some tech shares, they could both rise or decrease in value. In forex is different because currencies work in pairs; for instance, an investor decides Euro will go up he or she is doing it against another currency. Thus, in this specific marketplace one currency will rise while the other will fall, meaning an investor is buying the currency hoping it will appreciate to the other, or selling the one that will depreciate.
See image below:
Figure 1: Main traded currency pairs
https://preview.redd.it/vu77ziuoyle31.png?width=574&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b1693bf27508fcb142705c309de1fc5b3e8fa19
Currency pairs are composed by a base and a price currency. Main forex trading principle is how much price currency an investor can buy using 1 unit of the base, thus, the base currency, which is the first one in line within the quotation, is always equal to 1.
Because like every financial instrument currency pairs are driven by fundamentals of supply and demand, forex is intensively influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
Capital Markets – these are the most visible indicators of a country economic health, where usually the healthier the economy the stronger the currency. For example, a rapid sell-off from a country will show that nation is not economically stable, subsequently investors will think negatively of it depreciating its currency.
Moreover, many countries are sector driven, this means that their currencies are strictly correlated with certain resources. For instance, Canada which is a commodity-based market, CAD is strictly linked to price of Brent and metals, a swing in those will affect the Canadian currency.
Finally, credit market is also connected to forex since also relies heavily on interest rate so, a change in bond yield will have major impact on currency prices. like increase in yield will favour bullish market for USD
International Trade – Trade levels serve as a proxy for relative demand of goods from a nation, a country which goods and services that are in high demand internationally, will experience an appreciation to its currency. This is an effect driven by all other countries converting their currencies into the one of that state to purchase its goods and services. Let’s say a product from USA is in high demand globally, all the other countries must sell their currencies to buy dollars to then see their goods shipped, thus USD will appreciate.
Trade surplus and deficit also indicate a nation competitive standing in international trade. Countries with a large trade deficit are usually importers resulting in more of their currencies being sold to buy goods worldwide, thus they will see their currencies devaluate.
Geopolitics – The political landscape of a nation places a major role in the economic outlook for that country and consequently, the perceived value of its own currency. Beside building up price action strategies, based purely on price levels, forex traders constantly look at economic calendars and news to gauge what could move currencies. A geopolitical event which is having a great impact on GBP, is the election of Boris Johnson as UK prime minister, driving the local currency to 2 years low, yesterday 29th of July 2019. Therefore, when investors observe instability from a nation political environment, there are high chances that the currency of that country will depreciate.

Why Trading Forex

Beside swapping from a gold standard to free-floating, which change the whole forex trading game, technology is another crucial factor that helped this financial sector to spread globally. With the introduction of internet in the 90s forex opened to retail investors giving access to various trading platforms. The introduction of online platforms and retail investments have increased forex market volume by 5%, up to $250bn of its daily turnover. Different traders may have different reasons for selecting forex, however, mostly is because this is a fertile market plenty of daily opportunities to gauge price action and profit from it.

Volatility

How traders profit from trading forex? Basics of trading are rather simple to understand. An investor buys an asset at a certain price hoping to get rid of it for a higher price. The more volatile is the market for that specific financial instrument, the more revenue is possible to make. Therefore, a trader is looking for long up and down moves rather than market fluctuating sideways.
Volatility is great in forex and a trader can expect to regularly see prices oscillating 50-100 pips on major currency pairs almost any day of the week. Yet again, due to this enormous constant fluctuation, potential losses or gains can be very high thus, rigours money management must be applied to avoid major damages and become a profitable trader. To conclude, volatility is the main characteristic investors are looking at and that is why it is one of the main feature traders can take advantage.
See image below:

Figure 2: FDAX Volatility, H4 (30th May 2019, 16:00, 30th July 2019, 16:00)

Accessibility & Technology

While volatility is the most important element out in the market that tell us why forex is the best market to trade, accessibility comes straight after. This market is more accessible than all the others, trading forex requires an online desk position and as little as $100 to start off an account.
In comparison with the other financial markets, forex requires a rather low trading capital. Moreover, trading forex can be easily accessible from your PC, tablet or mobile since most of retail broker firms operate online. Although, accessibility cannot tell the quality of the market by itself, it definitely shows a reason why many investors try their first trading experience on forex.
Also, the rapid introduction of technology since the 90s, made trading much easier. There are every year more advanced online platforms to trade on with many possible updates and that is why trading forex is edging for many global investors.

Forex Players

Before the introduction of free-floating currency and more importantly cutting hedge technology, forex was a market that could have been traded only by institutional investors. Nowadays however, even retail and individual investor can take advantage of the huge volume forex offers every day.
Banks
Interbank market is the major responsible for the high volume registered daily in forex. This is the place where banks exchange currency among each other, facilitating forex transactions for customers and speculate for their trading desks.
  • Clients transactions: in this case banks of all size act as dealer for clients, where the bid-ask spread represents the profit for the institutions.
  • Speculation: currencies are traded to profit from their price fluctuations as well as to increase diversification on their portfolio
Because banking institutions are the biggest players in foreign exchange market, they are able to push up and down the price of currencies giving an extreme advantage and higher volatility to individual traders who are trying to gauge price moves.
Central Banks
Central banks representing their nation’s government, are crucial in forex. They oversee monetary and fiscal policies having massive influence on currency rates. A central bank is responsible for fixing the price level of its native currency on the market, in other words they take care of the regime currencies will float in the open market.
  • Floating: these are the currencies which price floats on the open market based on principles of supply and demand relative to other currencies
  • Pegged (fixed exchange rate): opposite to floating currencies pegged ones are not free-floating in the open market however, their government rather tie them to the value of a stronger foreign currency. Pegged currencies are more seen in developing countries (CYN to USD).
Because central banks manage interest rates in order to increase the competitiveness of their native nation to another.
  • Dovish: these policies will be lowering down interest rates. A central bank which applies dovish conditions aims to give economic stimulus and guard against deflation. Usually a policy intended to give economy stimulus will weakening the currency value.
  • Hawkish: on the other hand, hawkish policies lead to an increase in interest rate. A central bank that uses hawkish measures aims to reduce inflation. Typically, this kind of policies will reinforce the country currency value.
Investment Managers & Hedge Funds
Portfolio managers and hedge funds are the second investors in forex after central and investment banks. They are hired by huge institutions such as pension to manage their assets. However while portfolio managers of pool funds will buy currency to speculate on foreign securities, hedge funds execute speculative trades as part of their strategies.
Corporations
Also international corporation play a big role in forex. Those firms operating globally, buying and selling goods and services are involved in forex transactions daily. Imagine an American company producing pipes that imports Japanese components and sell the finished product to China. After the sale is closed the CYN must be converted back to USD, while the American company must exchange USD into JPY to repay for the components supply.
Moreover, company involved in international trade have an interest in forex in order to hedge the risk associated with currencies fluctuations making several foreign exchange transactions. For instance, the same American company might buy JPY at spot rate, or enter a swap agreement to obtain JPY in advance, overtaking the risk of the Japanese currency to rise in the future. Therefore, forex become crucial to run companies with many subsidiaries and suppliers all over the word.
Individual & Retail Investors
Even though this investor cluster brings to forex a very limited volume compared to financial institutions and corporations, it is rapidly growing in numbers and popularity. These base their trades on a mixture of fundamentals and technical analysis.
Bottom line, main reason why forex is the most traded market in the world is because gives everyone, from top financial institutions to retail and individual trades, opportunities to make returns on capital invested from currencies price fluctuations related to global economy.
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Subreddit Stats: AskEconomics posts from 2018-08-22 to 2018-11-12 07:20 PDT

Period: 82.02 days
Submissions Comments
Total 979 6319
Rate (per day) 11.94 76.69
Unique Redditors 688 1060
Combined Score 5907 19076

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 322 points, 37 submissions: benjaminikuta
    1. So, what's the difference between this new trade deal with Mexico and Canada and the old one, and what are the implications? (71 points, 12 comments)
    2. The EU is considering making product life expectancy a mandatory piece of info for consumer electronics. What would the economic implications of that be? (64 points, 24 comments)
    3. Do powerful unions increase wages above the optimal level, or do firms with market power cause imperfect competition in the labor market, causing sub optimal wages? (Or both?) (27 points, 3 comments)
    4. How do economists measure unpaid work? (24 points, 8 comments)
    5. When it is said that someone in a third world country lives on a dollar a day, what does that actually mean? (22 points, 19 comments)
    6. What are some common misconceptions about economics? (14 points, 19 comments)
    7. What would be a better alternative to Bernie's proposal to tax employers of welfare recipients? (14 points, 65 comments)
    8. How effectively can negative externalities be quantified? (10 points, 7 comments)
    9. To what degree has the internet increased the liquidity of the labor market? (7 points, 3 comments)
    10. What happened with the Greek economic crisis? (7 points, 5 comments)
  2. 146 points, 30 submissions: Whynvme
    1. When economists refer to industrialization, does it mean a move from agricultural to manufacturing economy? Is the growth in services a different term? (22 points, 6 comments)
    2. Do economists actually calculate consumer surplus empirically, or is it more of s theoretical concept? (20 points, 5 comments)
    3. If we have cobb douglas preferences, my demand for x is not a function of the price of y. How do substitution effects arise then? (11 points, 6 comments)
    4. Is me making more money than I would necessarily require to work( so more than my 'opportunity wage') for a job an economic inefficiency? or is ineffiency in labor markets a wedge between my marginal revenue product and my wage? (11 points, 3 comments)
    5. why is ceteris paribus important for analyzing/thinking about the world? (11 points, 7 comments)
    6. Why does inflation necessarily mean wages will be increasing too? (6 points, 3 comments)
    7. some basic macro questions (6 points, 2 comments)
    8. what is meant by value added? (6 points, 3 comments)
    9. Trying to understand economies of scale, e.g. costco (5 points, 5 comments)
    10. Why would an economy implode long term if there are decreasing returns to scale? (5 points, 15 comments)
  3. 95 points, 2 submissions: MrDannyOcean
    1. Announcing a new policy direction for /AskEconomics (75 points, 135 comments)
    2. The new rules for AskEconomics are now in place. Please see the details within. (20 points, 20 comments)
  4. 79 points, 7 submissions: Fart_Gas
    1. Is free public transport a good idea? (41 points, 20 comments)
    2. Will Venezuela's plummeting economy make it a good choice for low-wage industries? (17 points, 8 comments)
    3. What might cause sudden inflation? (8 points, 2 comments)
    4. Why do some countries without hyperinflation use a foreign currency in everyday life? (8 points, 3 comments)
    5. Has any country tried reducing the minimum wage, and ended up with a good result from it? (3 points, 8 comments)
    6. Do boycotts really work? (1 point, 3 comments)
    7. Why do some businesses sponsor sporting teams in countries they don't operate in, and that they don't plan to expand to in the foreseeable future? (1 point, 1 comment)
  5. 66 points, 7 submissions: FrankVillain
    1. Can the Euro become the global currency for trade? (17 points, 3 comments)
    2. Is China still considered a centrally planned economy? (16 points, 4 comments)
    3. Ressources on the Soviet industrial failures due to poor economics? (14 points, 2 comments)
    4. What is the reason behind France's high unemployment rate? (9 points, 14 comments)
    5. About Land Value Tax & Single Tax: how would it affect farmers and those of them who own their land? (7 points, 3 comments)
    6. Does welfare policies contribute to inflation? (2 points, 1 comment)
    7. If a Bitcoin is worth $1 000 000 and some persons like Satoshi have one or more millions of it... what power do they have? Can they disrupt the financial system with the huge amount of dollars that they have? (1 point, 8 comments)
  6. 66 points, 1 submission: imadeadinside
    1. If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises (66 points, 16 comments)
  7. 64 points, 6 submissions: Serpenthrope
    1. Have there been any serious proposals for economic systems that don't use money? (23 points, 67 comments)
    2. Could a company ever become quality-control for a market in which they're competing, assuming no government interference? (16 points, 4 comments)
    3. Is there a formal name for this? (15 points, 6 comments)
    4. Why are second-hand clothing donations fundamentally different from other types of imports? (5 points, 1 comment)
    5. I saw this article on a UN report calling for the dismantling of Capitalism to stop Global Warming, and was wondering what most economists think of the claims? (3 points, 4 comments)
    6. Peter Navarro and Lyndon Larouche? (2 points, 1 comment)
  8. 62 points, 2 submissions: JeffGotSwags
    1. What are the most commonly held misconceptions about economics among people with at least some background? (36 points, 38 comments)
    2. How did the financial crisis affect the demand for economists? (26 points, 5 comments)
  9. 61 points, 11 submissions: Chumbaka
    1. Can someone explain M0 , M1 and M2 to me? (13 points, 2 comments)
    2. Can anyone explain why this happens and what it means? (11 points, 3 comments)
    3. Can a monopoly also be a monopsony? (10 points, 13 comments)
    4. Why is inflation and deflation bad? (10 points, 8 comments)
    5. Stupid question but : Why does printing lots of money lead to inflation? (5 points, 14 comments)
    6. Why aren't all banks Full Reserve Banking? (5 points, 3 comments)
    7. What does this stock market fall mean to the economy as a whole? (4 points, 4 comments)
    8. How would an universal free market deal with situations like NK? (3 points, 21 comments)
    9. How do I pick an economist ideology to support? (0 points, 3 comments)
    10. Is investing in Forex worth it? (0 points, 15 comments)
  10. 60 points, 6 submissions: Jollygood156
    1. Why didn't quantitative easing + low interest rates raise inflation high? (20 points, 36 comments)
    2. How do we actually refute MMT? (14 points, 68 comments)
    3. Tax Cuts boost Consumption, but the growth is short term while investments are long term. Why? (12 points, 7 comments)
    4. How exactly are land value taxes calculated? (6 points, 3 comments)
    5. What is Nominal GDP targeting and why do so many people advocate for it? (5 points, 16 comments)
    6. What even is Austerity? (3 points, 3 comments)
  11. 49 points, 1 submission: Akehc99
    1. Those who went into the job market after an Econ Undergrad, what do you do and briefly what does it entail? (49 points, 27 comments)
  12. 48 points, 1 submission: Traveledfarwestward
    1. What do most Economists think about The Economist? (48 points, 26 comments)
  13. 48 points, 1 submission: piltonpfizerwallace
    1. What would happen if the US printed $12.3 trillion tomorrow and paid off all of its debt? (48 points, 31 comments)
  14. 47 points, 6 submissions: lalze123
    1. Will Bernie's "STOP BEZOS" plan lower the opportunity cost of hiring non-poor workers, thereby harming poor workers? (19 points, 15 comments)
    2. What does the current economic literature say about the effects of net neutrality? (14 points, 0 comments)
    3. What government programs have been empirically proven to help displaced workers from import competition? (8 points, 0 comments)
    4. By how much does lowering the budget deficit lower the trade deficit? (5 points, 4 comments)
    5. What are some good studies analyzing the difference in efficiency between markets and central planning? (1 point, 1 comment)
    6. Is the study below reliable? (0 points, 3 comments)
  15. 45 points, 1 submission: gh0bs
    1. Why does the economy have to be a series of bubbles and bursts/corrections, rather than a sustained gradual growth? (45 points, 32 comments)
  16. 42 points, 1 submission: Turnt_Up_For_What
    1. You've just been declared supreme potentate of Venezuela. Now how do you fix the economy? (42 points, 24 comments)
  17. 41 points, 1 submission: Crane_Train
    1. How could Venezuela fix its economy? (41 points, 19 comments)
  18. 41 points, 1 submission: TheHoleInMoi
    1. Are there any papers/solid arguments about the benefits of having more local business as opposed to corporate consolidation? (41 points, 2 comments)
  19. 39 points, 5 submissions: UyhAEqbnp
    1. Does income inequality really matter? (19 points, 39 comments)
    2. What happens when there's a surplus of labour? Can there ever be a point where the wages earned are less than the cost of living? (10 points, 2 comments)
    3. Several questions (4 points, 4 comments)
    4. "Keeping seniors from retiring does not boost wages via aggregate demand" (3 points, 5 comments)
    5. Is Okun's Law valid? (3 points, 3 comments)
  20. 39 points, 4 submissions: justinVOLuntary
    1. Best resource on the financial crisis of 2008 (17 points, 7 comments)
    2. Blogs? (11 points, 5 comments)
    3. Econ Internship (7 points, 5 comments)
    4. Not sure if this is the kind of question I should be asking here. I’m an Undergrad Econ major and I’m looking for reading recommendations. Anything from economic theory, history, current research, etc. Main interest is Macro. Thanks (4 points, 5 comments)
  21. 39 points, 2 submissions: ConditionalDew
    1. How much would the iPhone be if it was made in the US? (37 points, 15 comments)
    2. Who are some famous people/celebrities that were economics majors? (2 points, 2 comments)
  22. 39 points, 1 submission: rangerlinks
    1. Who are the best economist to follow on Twitter? (39 points, 16 comments)
  23. 36 points, 5 submissions: CanadianAsshole1
    1. If free trade is so good, then why do countries insist on making trade deals? Why can't we just abolish all tariffs? (18 points, 11 comments)
    2. If climate change is such a huge problem, then why aren't countries utilizing nuclear energy more? (8 points, 17 comments)
    3. Do I understand the problem with"trickle-down" economics correctly? (6 points, 38 comments)
    4. How much of the Reagan administration's deficits could be attributed to increased defense spending? (3 points, 3 comments)
    5. If automation will result in less jobs, then shouldn't the government stop incentivizing childbirth through tax credits and stop immigration? (1 point, 12 comments)
  24. 35 points, 7 submissions: MedStudent-96
    1. Is my textbook wrong? (11 points, 8 comments)
    2. Quasi-convexity of the Indirect Utility Function? (9 points, 14 comments)
    3. Consumer Demand Interpretation for Cobb Douglas-Non Convex to Origin. (4 points, 6 comments)
    4. Do monopolies produce the same as a competitive firm in the long run? (4 points, 8 comments)
    5. Interpretation of Lagrange Multipliers for Consumer (4 points, 4 comments)
    6. Optimisation when MRTS > price ratio (2 points, 7 comments)
    7. Help with the Partial Derivative of the Marginal Cost Function. (1 point, 10 comments)
  25. 35 points, 1 submission: grate1438
    1. Why do Croatians receieve so much more through their pension than their working wage? (35 points, 8 comments)

Top Commenters

  1. BainCapitalist (2626 points, 648 comments)
  2. Calvo_fairy (947 points, 232 comments)
  3. smalleconomist (885 points, 255 comments)
  4. RobThorpe (776 points, 259 comments)
  5. zzzzz94 (577 points, 111 comments)
  6. Cross_Keynesian (520 points, 108 comments)
  7. Integralds (418 points, 68 comments)
  8. penguin_rider222 (395 points, 116 comments)
  9. whyrat (362 points, 69 comments)
  10. bbqroast (319 points, 74 comments)
  11. MrDannyOcean (314 points, 54 comments)
  12. isntanywhere (207 points, 63 comments)
  13. RedditUser91805 (189 points, 28 comments)
  14. CapitalismAndFreedom (176 points, 68 comments)
  15. benjaminikuta (171 points, 112 comments)
  16. LucasCritique (162 points, 33 comments)
  17. raptorman556 (157 points, 44 comments)
  18. lawrencekhoo (156 points, 22 comments)
  19. daokedao4 (131 points, 16 comments)
  20. Yankee9204 (121 points, 15 comments)
  21. roboczar (112 points, 20 comments)
  22. RegulatoryCapture (109 points, 23 comments)
  23. ecolonomist (105 points, 45 comments)
  24. TheoryOfSomething (102 points, 9 comments)
  25. Forgot_the_Jacobian (97 points, 31 comments)

Top Submissions

  1. Announcing a new policy direction for /AskEconomics by MrDannyOcean (75 points, 135 comments)
  2. So, what's the difference between this new trade deal with Mexico and Canada and the old one, and what are the implications? by benjaminikuta (71 points, 12 comments)
  3. If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises by imadeadinside (66 points, 16 comments)
  4. The EU is considering making product life expectancy a mandatory piece of info for consumer electronics. What would the economic implications of that be? by benjaminikuta (64 points, 24 comments)
  5. Those who went into the job market after an Econ Undergrad, what do you do and briefly what does it entail? by Akehc99 (49 points, 27 comments)
  6. What would happen if the US printed $12.3 trillion tomorrow and paid off all of its debt? by piltonpfizerwallace (48 points, 31 comments)
  7. What do most Economists think about The Economist? by Traveledfarwestward (48 points, 26 comments)
  8. Why does the economy have to be a series of bubbles and bursts/corrections, rather than a sustained gradual growth? by gh0bs (45 points, 32 comments)
  9. What is the difference in knowledge between academic economists(Krugman, Acemoglu, Mankiw etc) and hedge fund managers and the like(Soros, James Simons)? by deleted (43 points, 5 comments)
  10. You've just been declared supreme potentate of Venezuela. Now how do you fix the economy? by Turnt_Up_For_What (42 points, 24 comments)

Top Comments

  1. 62 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in Milton Friedman is well respected by many economists, why aren't there more Libertarians?
  2. 62 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in Milton Friedman is well respected by many economists, why aren't there more Libertarians?
  3. 59 points: RedditUser91805's comment in The EU is considering making product life expectancy a mandatory piece of info for consumer electronics. What would the economic implications of that be?
  4. 58 points: arctigos's comment in What do most Economists think about The Economist?
  5. 55 points: hbtn's comment in Why are Little Caesar's cheese pizzas the same price as its pepperoni pizzas?
  6. 54 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in Could someone explain the wage gap and whether it's a myth or not.
  7. 51 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises
  8. 51 points: RedditUser91805's comment in You've just been declared supreme potentate of Venezuela. Now how do you fix the economy?
  9. 51 points: smalleconomist's comment in What are the most commonly held misconceptions about economics among people with at least some background?
  10. 49 points: TheoryOfSomething's comment in Which parts of Marxism are theoretically dependent on the labor theory of value and which are not?
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How to make 100€/day with hedging strategy forex

Remove all; Disconnect; The next video is starting stop. Loading... Watch Queue Queue. __count__/__total__ Find out why Close. How to make 100€/day with hedging strategy forex Fortnite Warriorz ... This revision video looks at a range of demand and supply-side policies that might be effective in reducing unemployment in the UK economy. For more help wit... The 4 forex strategies that every trader should know ! 🚨🚨Trading Performance 🚨🚨 Improve Your Trading Performance at our Fundamental Trading Academy https://w... Learn Forex Trading - Education how to use and read forexfactory.com calendar for trading news strategies. http://fxdailyreport.com - Daily forex, commodity,... Most Traders are excited to trade NFP with the hopes of making Major Profits. For many this is the most imporatant trading session of the month. Forex Master Trader and Best-selling Author Louis ... AS/IB 26) Policies to Reduce Unemployment - An understanding of all the policy options available to government to reduce unemployment of all types (cyclical,... How To Trade Forex News Using Forex Factory (High Impact News Trading) // Know the smart way to trade USD Unemployment Claims, CAD Employment change, and CAD Unemployment rate Forex Fundamentals ... We discuss how to reduce your risk at very little cost. We also review the calendar for the week and the recent commitment of traders report of institutional positioning. Watch more videos here ... It is all about risk.... I often get asked "Are you bullish or bearish the dollar going into the US employment report?" Folks it is a risk proposition to go long or short into such a big event ... QNET – a global e-commerce products company today organized its first “Absolute Living Expo” in Ghana.

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